Why do we ask the question ”Why Moore’s Law is dead?”. But first we need to understand what is it that this ”law” governs.
Moore’s Law is a prediction made by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, in 1965. He observed that the number of transistors on a microchip was doubling approximately every two years, leading to a rapid increase in computing power and a decrease in the cost of electronics. However, in recent years, many experts have argued that Moore’s Law is effectively “dead” or at least slowing down significantly. There are several reasons for this:
Physical limitations due to quantum effects
As transistors have shrunk to nanoscale levels, they are now approaching the fundamental limits of physics. Quantum mechanics effects (like Quantum tunneling) and other physical constraints make it increasingly difficult to continue scaling transistors down in size without encountering significant challenges in terms of power consumption, heat dissipation, and reliability.
Economic factors are also a thing
Building state-of-the-art semiconductor fabrication facilities (fabs) to produce ever smaller transistors has become extremely expensive. The cost of R&D and manufacturing for advanced semiconductor processes has grown exponentially. This has led to a consolidation in the semiconductor industry, with fewer companies able to afford to stay at the cutting edge.
Diminishing returns
Doubling the number of transistors on a chip does not necessarily translate into a doubling of overall performance for all types of applications. In many cases, the performance gains have become less noticeable, especially for everyday computing tasks, due to bottlenecks in other hardware components like memory and storage.
Parallelism and specialization for ways to increase performance
To continue improving computing power, the industry has shifted towards parallel processing and specialized hardware accelerators (e.g., GPUs, TPUs) optimized for specific tasks like machine learning. While this has improved overall computational capabilities, it doesn’t strictly adhere to Moore’s original formulation of transistor count doubling.
Software optimization and algorithms
Software optimization and algorithm improvements have become increasingly important in achieving performance gains. Writing more efficient software and developing better algorithms can have a substantial impact on overall computing power, even when hardware advancements are slowing down.
Conclusion
It’s essential to note that while the original concept of Moore’s Law may be losing its applicability to transistor counts, innovation in the semiconductor industry continues. Researchers are exploring new materials and technologies (such as quantum computing and neuromorphic computing) to push the boundaries of what’s possible in computing.
So, the answer to the question ”Why Moore’s Law is dead” is in a way problematic, traditional formulation of Moore’s Law may be slowing down, but progress in computing technology is far from dead.
